Economic Growth of Singapore in the Twentieth Century: Historical GDP Estimates and Empirical Investigations (Economic Growth Centre Research Monograph Series)

Contents......Page 12
Preface......Page 8
Acknowledgments......Page 10
List of Tables......Page 24
List of Figures......Page 36
List of Maps......Page 40
List of Abbreviations......Page 42
1.1 Objective of Study......Page 44
1.2.1 Literature Review on Economic History of Singapore prior to Independence......Page 46
1.2.2 Literature Review on the Construction of Historical Statistics......Page 52
1.2.3 Literature Review on GDP Concepts and Approaches......Page 58
1.3 Statistical Sources and Possible Approach for the Construction of GDP of Singapore......Page 62
1.4 Layout of the Book......Page 65
2.1 Introduction......Page 70
2.1.1 Overview on the Methodology Employed for Estimation of Each Component of GDP......Page 71
2.2.1 Definition......Page 78
2.2.2 Sources and Methods of Estimation at Current Prices......Page 79
2.3.1 Definition......Page 113
2.3.2 Source Materials and Methodology for Estimates......Page 115
2.3.4 Government Final Consumption Expenditure in 1914 Prices......Page 128
2.4.1 Definition......Page 130
2.4.2 Investment in Construction......Page 133
2.4.3 Investment in Transport, Machinery, and Equipment......Page 138
2.4.4 Cultivated Assets......Page 147
2.4.5 Change in Stock......Page 156
2.5.1 Definition......Page 161
2.5.2 Merchandize Trade in Current Prices......Page 164
2.5.3 Merchandise Trade and Its Adjustment......Page 165
2.5.4 Services Trade, 1900–1939 and 1950–1960......Page 166
2.5.5 External Trade of Goods and Services in 1914 Prices......Page 170
3.1 Introduction......Page 182
3.2 Results of GDP Estimates......Page 183
3.3 Assessment of GDP Estimates......Page 188
3.3.1 Consistency Check......Page 189
3.3.2 Upturns and Downturns of Each Component of GDP, 1900–39 and 1950–60......Page 198
3.3.3 International Comparison......Page 209
3.4.1 Transforming the Base Year from 1914 Prices to 1990 Prices for the Period 1900–39 and 1950–60......Page 220
3.4.2 Overall Patterns of Growth for the Twentieth Century......Page 223
4.1 Introduction......Page 234
4.2.1 Declining Degree of Real GDP Volatility......Page 236
4.2.2 The Source of Real GDP Volatilities......Page 242
4.2.3 The Effect of Economic Instability to Economic Growth......Page 244
4.2.4 Studies on Singapore Relating to This Issue......Page 248
4.3.1 Definition and Measurement of Output Volatilities......Page 255
4.3.2 Economic Instability of GDP and Its Components......Page 256
4.4.1 Explanation of Real GDP Volatilities......Page 266
4.4.2 The Effect of Economic Instability on Economic Growth......Page 271
4.5. International Comparison......Page 276
4.6 Concluding Remarks......Page 278
5.1 Introduction......Page 280
5.2.1 Features of Colonial Government Finance Behavior......Page 282
5.2.2 Previous Econometric Test on Government Expenditure and Economic Growth......Page 291
5.3.1 Government Revenue......Page 300
5.3.2 Government Expenditure......Page 308
5.3.3 Budget Surplus/Deficit and Financial Assets......Page 314
5.3.4 Summary......Page 317
5.4.1 Testing Methodology......Page 320
5.4.2 Data......Page 326
5.5.1 Unit Root Test......Page 328
5.5.2 Cointegration Tests......Page 329
5.5.3 Granger Causality Tests......Page 331
5.6 Concluding Remarks......Page 337
6.1 Significance of the Construction of Historical GDP Estimates of Singapore......Page 340
6.2.1 Overall Patterns of Singapore’s GDP for the Twentieth Century......Page 342
6.2.2 Economic Instability and Economic Growth in Singapore in the Twentieth Century......Page 343
6.2.3 Government Fiscal Behavior and Economic Growth in Singapore in the Twentieth Century......Page 344
6.3 Limitations of This Study and Future Research Area......Page 346
Appendices......Page 350
1 Food Price Indices......Page 352
3 Clothing Price Indices......Page 353
4 Rent Price Indices......Page 354
6 Club Price Indices......Page 355
1.1 Asiatic Standard......Page 356
1.2 European and Eurasian Clerical Standards......Page 357
2.1 Tobacco Price Indices for the Asiatic and Eurasian Standards, 1915–17......Page 358
2.2 Beverages and Tobacco Price Indices for European Standard......Page 359
3 Price Indices of Clothing for the Period 1915–17 and 1939......Page 360
4.1 Asiatic and All Labor Standards......Page 361
4.3 Price of Rental Value Indices for the Year 1939 for the Different Standards......Page 362
5 Servant Price Indices for Asiatic, Eurasian, and European Standards......Page 363
7 Price Indices of Clubs for European Standard for the Period 1915–17 and 1939......Page 364
Appendix 3 Singapore: Cost-of-Living Indices by Major Object of Consumption and Consumption Standard, 1939 and 1947–60......Page 366
Appendix Tables......Page 368
Appendix Figure......Page 419
Bibliography......Page 420